Soybean oil and soybean meal exports reached nearly 20 million tons from January to October 2022, a record volume for the period, according to data from Brazil's Ministry of Economy. This represents an increase of approximately 28% compared to the same period last year when 15.55 million tons of the two products were exported. In view of this favorable scenario in the international market, the National Supply Company (CONAB) expects exports of the two products will reach 22.5 million tons.

As for soybean meal, exports between January and October reached 17.75 million tons, an increase of 25% compared to the volume recorded in the same period of the previous year. If we consider only Indonesia, the main destination of Brazilian bran so far, sales in the international market reached 2.6 million tons compared to 1.94 million tons, an increase of 34%.

Soybeans

On November 28, the new stage of the Export Increase Program (PIE) officially started, which establishes a parity of ARS 230/USD for the commercialization of oilseeds. As a result, there was an increase of 6.3% in prices for Gran Rosario and Necochea at the end of the week of December 2, which went from ARS 80,000/ton to ARS 85,000/ton, while for Bahía Blanca there was a decrease of 2.4% from ARS 82,000/ton to ARS 80,000/ton.

According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), 1,003,234 tons of meal and 335,134 tons of oil are expected to be shipped from Gran Rosario between November 30 and December 17, 10,000 tons of beans and 10,000 tons of meal from Bahía Blanca, while 26,000 tons of beans and 13,000 tons of oil are expected to be shipped from Necochea.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) reported progress at 29.1% for the sowing of the new crop, which is behind the 48.2% progress made at the same time in 2021.

Corn

At the end of the week of December 2, corn prices fell in the Gran Rosario (-2.1%) and Bahía Blanca (-2.0%) markets, with values of USD 235/t and USD 250/t, respectively. For Necochea, prices went from USD 230/t to USD 245/t, an increase of 6.5%.

BCBA reported an advance of 25.4% for the new crop planting, which is lower compared to 31.1% at the same time in 2021 and the average of 39.3% of the previous 5 seasons.

FAO’s forecast for world cereal production in 2022 has been cut by 7.2 million tonnes this month and is now pegged at 2 756 tonnes, 2.0% (57 million tonnes) lower year-on-year. By comparison, world cereal production grew by an average of 56 million tonnes per year in the last three years. This month’s downgrade mainly concerns maize and, albeit by a smaller amount, wheat production.

Global coarse grain production in 2022 is pegged at 1 462 million tonnes following an almost 5-million-tonne cut to the forecast and is now seen to decline by 3.1% compared to the 2021 outturn. The recent reduction principally reflects lower maize harvest prospects in Ukraine, due to the impact of the war. Global wheat production in 2022 has been lowered by 2.7 million tonnes this month down to 781.2 million tonnes, nevertheless, it remains a record high. The month-on-month cutback almost entirely concerns Argentina, where prolonged dry weather conditions are impairing yields. Global rice production in 2022 remains forecast to fall 2.4% below the 2021 all-time record to an overall volume of 512.8 million tonnes (milled basis).