Russia: Retail pork price estimates for 2022
The retail cost of pork in Russia in 2022 will grow at a rate many times lower than inflation due to an increase in the production of this product and stabilization of the cost structure.
The retail cost of pork in Russia in 2022 will grow at a rate a fraction of the inflation rate due to the increase in production of this product and the stabilization of the cost structure. Yury Kovalev, director general of the National Union of Pork Producers of Russia, voiced this estimate to TASS.
Kovalev noted that there is now a consistent development of the pork industry in Russia. The industry has been growing at a rate of 5% to 10% a year for the last ten years. Last year there was such growth, but epizootic problems nullified the increase. Kovalev says that now the problems have been overcome and production continues to increase.
In the first six months of 2022, there was a 7% growth in the industrial pork sector. "Given the fact that we are almost 100% self-sufficient, this additional growth naturally pressures the market. Last year, the additional supply was mostly offset by lower imports, increased exports, and increased consumption," said the union head.
This year imports of pork products in Russia will be practically zero. Exports are not expected to increase this year because of last year's growth. Thus, as Kovalev noted, under a favorable and baseline scenario, the additional supply in the pork market will be offset by additional demand.
In his opinion, this will happen due to the increase of state social payments to the unprotected segments of the population. "In this case, wholesale prices for our products - live pigs - will remain at last year's level. This will greatly reduce the pressure on retail prices, which always lag behind the wholesale prices," said Kovalev. He added that stable grain prices due to the effect of grain dampening in Russia contribute to the stabilization of meat prices.
Germany: Lowest pig inventory since 1990
Compared to May 3, 2021, the swine herd is down 9.8% or 2.42 million head.
According to preliminary results from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), as of May 3, 2022, 22.3 million pigs were raised in Germany, representing the lowest recorded swine herd since German unification in 1990 (30.8 million head). Compared to November 3, 2021, the swine herd fell by 6.2% or 1.48 million head. This is the third consecutive significant drop. Compared to May 3, 2021, the reduction is 9.8% or 2.42 million head.
By category, as of May 3, 2022, 10.3 million finishing pigs were raised, down 6.7% or 735,800 head from November 2021. The number of pigs under 50 kg was also down significantly by 10.1% (-423,000 head) at 3.8 million head. The number of breeding sows decreased by 6.2% or 98,700 head compared to November 2021 to 1.5 million head.
There has also been a decrease in the number of pig farms since, as of May 3, 2022, there were 17,900 registered, 5.2% or 1,000 fewer farms than in November 2021. Compared to the previous year, the number of pig farms decreased by 9.6% (-1,900 farms).
Comparing the last ten years also shows decreasing trends in the number of pigs and farms. Since 2012 the number of pigs has decreased by 20.8% (-5.8 million head), while the number of farms has decreased by 41% (-12,400 farms). As the number of farms has fallen more sharply than the number of pigs, the average swine herd has increased from 929 to 1,248 head per farm over the past ten years.
Canada approves imports from two more Brazilian pork plants
One week ago Canada authorized the first Brazilian plants to import their pork. Now Canada has announced the authorization of two others.
A week after authorizing the first Brazilian plants to export pork, the Canadian sanitary authorities announced the approval of another two plants to export, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture to the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA).
With the new authorizations, Brazil now has five production units authorized to export pork to the Canadian market.
Just like the first three certifications, the two new plants are located in the state of Santa Catarina. One plant is Pamplona Alimentos in Presidente Getúlio (SC), and the other is Cooperativa Central Aurora in Joaçaba (SC).
Canada is the third-largest global exporter of pork, with 1.5 million tons exported in 2021. At the same time, the country is an important international buyer, with imports of about 250 thousand tons recorded over the past year.