Brazil: New estimate for the 2023/24 grain harvest is 295.6 mt
The volume represents a drop of 7.6% from the last season, i.e. 24.2 million tons less to be harvested.
Brazilian grain production for the 2023/24 harvest is expected to reach 295.6 million tons. The volume represents a drop of 7.6% from the previous season or 24.2 million tons less to be harvested, which is mainly the result of a 7.1% reduction in the expected average yield, from 4,072 kg/ha to 3,784 kg/ha.
With the harvest reaching 47.9% of the sown area by the beginning of March, soybeans could see a production of 146.9 million tons, down 5% from the previous harvest. The drop is due to low rainfall and above-normal temperatures in the main producing regions. However, the rainfall has favored crop development in the places that were sown later.
With the soybean harvest progressing, the second corn crop is being planted within the window in the main producing states, such as Mato Grosso and Paraná. The second crop harvest alone is expected at 87.35 million tons. The first crop harvest, expected at 23.41 million tons, has reached 32.9% of the cultivated area. Total corn production is estimated at 112.75 million tons.
https://www.conab.gov.br
U.S: Enhanced swine traceability resolution adopted
The approved standards will be submitted to the U.S. Department of Agriculture for inclusion in the regulations mandating live swine traceability.
U.S. pork producers approved a resolution to enhance the country’s live swine traceability system during the 2024 National Pork Industry Forum hosted by the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC).
In 2022, a producer-led task force brought together stakeholders throughout the pork supply chain to identify and address current gaps in the live swine traceability system. This task force offered a series of comment periods for producers to provide input on the enhanced standards. That process resulted in the following recommendations:
- All swine owners would need to register for a premises identification number (PIN).
- High-risk swine (from a traceability perspective), including cull breeding stock and show/exhibition stock, would be required to be tagged with an AIN (animal identification number) RFID (radio frequency) tag.
- Producers would be asked to record consistent data points, including PIN of origin, PIN of destination, date of movement, animal type, and any official identification that is present.
- Producers would be asked to record this data electronically within three business days.
- Movement data would be reported to a centralized database following the detection of a trade-limiting disease.
- Semen would require a label with the PIN of the source herd. Cull markets and packing plants would use tattoo numbers unique to each facility.
The approved standards will be submitted to the U.S. Department of Agriculture for inclusion in the regulations mandating live swine traceability.
https://nppc.org/
Japan: Pork production and trade forecast for 2024
Japan’s pork production will be steady and imports up slightly to meet stable demand in both its retail and food service sectors.
The number of swine slaughtered in 2024 is expected to reach 16.85 million, up slightly from 2023 (16.74 million). Higher beginning stocks, the result of delays in slaughter amid the extremely hot summer in 2023, will supply much of the increase. Strong demand for pork will support carcass prices and incentivize hog operators to maintain production levels. Pig production in 2024 should rise with the expected growth in sow population from 2023.
Ending inventories in 2024 will be flat year on year assuming mild climate conditions and no disease outbreaks. Pork production in 2023 was flat but had dramatic swings during the second half of the year. High temperatures in summer diminished appetites and swine took longer to gain weight. The resultant delay in slaughtering triggered a mild shortage and pork carcass prices spiked in August and September. Following that, mild weather in the winter allowed fast weight gain and the pace of swine slaughter quickly recovered.
Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea were reported during the year, but the impacts on production were limited. In 2023, four reported cases of CSF resulted in total culls of 13,400 head of swine. Two of the cases occurred in Saga prefecture on Kyushu Island, which has 31% of Japan’s total swine population. Prefectural governments and local hog operators have agreed to apply CSF vaccine to healthy swine reared in Kyushu Island to prevent further outbreaks in the largest pork production area.
Despite inflation’s dampening effect on consumers, Japan’s pork consumption in 2024 is projected to hold steady from 2023 driven by strong demand in the retail as well as the food service sector, which continues to benefit from the post-COVID spike in tourism. Pork has come to be a staple animal protein for the Japanese diet, especially for home cooking. It is relatively price inelastic so less affected by inflation, but increasingly consumers do favor the lower-priced cuts of pork.
Japan’s pork imports in 2024 are projected to increase by just 1% to meet a domestic supply shortfall. Ongoing uncertainty in exchange rates and foreign supply chains likely will drive traders to limit imports to what is needed to meet current demand. Higher landed costs depressed Japan’s pork imports in 2023 by 6%. The weak yen against the dollar and euro was one factor, but also international tensions in the Red Sea further increased import costs when shipping routes through the region became unavailable. Vessels from Europe to Japan had to change routes to bypass the Red Sea, which affected about 20% of pork imports, mainly frozen pork and pork products. Also, Japan continued to suspend imports from some of the European countries such as Germany and Italy due to outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF). To steady supplies, importers drew down inventories by 7% from 2022.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov